The record
One number per match, locked an hour before kickoff and never edited. Next to it: what the market said at that moment, what it said at kickoff, and what happened. A model that is any good beats the close more often than not and scores lower on Brier than the market. If this one does not, you will see it here first.
Market figures are the average of Australian bookmakers' prices with the margin removed. No bookmaker is named, ranked or linked. 18+. Information, not advice.
Nothing locked yet
The first entry goes up one hour before the Rugby League World Cup final, Sunday 15 November, 6:35pm Brisbane time. From NRL Round 1 in March there will be one for every match.
How the numbers are made: the method. Why the closing line is the scorecard: lesson eight.
Chances are you're about to lose. 18+ only. Matchday Maths gives information, not betting advice, and no model can promise a result. Set a limit and stick to it. For free, confidential support call Gambling Help on 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au. To block yourself from all licensed Australian online and phone wagering, register at betstop.gov.au.