The bookie knows the fair price. Now you do too.
A statistical model prices every rugby league match: win probability, fair odds, expected margin and total. Put the bookmaker's price next to it and see who is paying over the odds.
Memberships open for the NRL 2027 season. Join the waitlist and you will hear first, with founder pricing held for you.
One email when memberships open, then nothing unless you ask. Your address is stored on our own server, never sold or shared, and deleted on request.
Rugby League World Cup 2026 final, Sunday 15 November, 6:35pm Brisbane time, Suncorp Stadium
Kickoff: counting…Members also see: the fair price for each side, the expected margin and total, the chance of covering any line, the expected value at your bookmaker's price, and a stake sized to your bank.
Join the waitlistChecked against results it had never seen
Every prediction in the record was made using only matches played before it. Between 2008 and 2026 that is 489 men's internationals.
Its worst stretch: 2017 to 2021 (not used for settings), when the favourite it named won 63% of 121 matches. That is in the record too.
- 65.6%
- Favourite won
- 22.8 pts
- Typical miss on the margin
- 0.203
- Brier score (lower is better)
- 0.250
- Brier score of a coin toss
Three numbers, one decision
1
The model's price
Three decades of results, rated match by match, give each side a win probability and a fair price: the odds at which a bet neither makes nor loses money over time.
2
The bookmaker's price
Type in what your bookmaker is offering. The site strips out their margin and shows the gap between their number and the model's.
3
Your stake
If the gap is in your favour, the staking plan you chose turns it into a stake, capped at 5% of your bank so one bad read can't sink you.
NRL 2027, live from Round 1
The club model goes live for every NRL match from Thursday 5 March 2027: win probability, fair price, line and total, every round, before Thursday kickoff. Waitlist members are offered founder pricing before anyone else.
Until then, the international model is the thing to judge us on. Its record is public, and the final is the live test.
- Every match's win probability, live
- Fair price for each side
- Expected value and stake at your bookmaker's price
- Line and total tools: chance of covering any line or total
- The model against every bookmaker's price
- Closing line value on every bet
Know the price before you take the price.
One email when memberships open, then nothing unless you ask. Your address is stored on our own server, never sold or shared, and deleted on request.
Chances are you're about to lose. 18+ only. Matchday Maths gives information, not betting advice, and no model can promise a result. Set a limit and stick to it. For free, confidential support call Gambling Help on 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au. To block yourself from all licensed Australian online and phone wagering, register at betstop.gov.au.