Rugby League World Cup 2026 final
Australia v New Zealand
Sunday 15 November, 6:35pm Brisbane time, Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane
The model rates Australia at 2211 and New Zealand at 2012, ranked 1st and 2nd in the world on results. Australia are at home, which the model counts in their favour. That makes Australia the favourite.
A fair price is the odds at which a bet neither makes nor loses money in the long run. If a bookmaker offers more than the fair price on a side, the model sees value there. If it offers less, the model says you are paying over the odds. Members see the fair price for both sides here; everyone sees the probability it comes from.
Members see the rest of the working
- The fair price for each side
- Expected margin and the chance of covering any line
- Expected total points and the chance of going over or under any total
- Expected value on the price you can get, and a stake sized to your bank
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Recent form
| Date | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov 2026 | Samoa | Won 44-12 |
| 31 Oct 2026 | Cook Islands | Won 66-6 |
| 25 Oct 2026 | Fiji | Won 36-22 |
| 15 Oct 2026 | New Zealand | Won 24-22 |
| 8 Nov 2025 | England | Won 30-8 |
| 1 Nov 2025 | England | Won 14-4 |
| Date | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 7 Nov 2026 | Tonga | Won 34-10 |
| 31 Oct 2026 | Fiji | Won 78-0 |
| 25 Oct 2026 | Cook Islands | Won 82-16 |
| 15 Oct 2026 | Australia | Lost 22-24 |
| 9 Nov 2025 | Samoa | Won 36-14 |
| 2 Nov 2025 | Tonga | Won 40-14 |
Head to head
Since 2016: played 12, Australia 10, New Zealand 2.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 15 Oct 2026 | Australia 24, New Zealand 22 | World Cup |
| 27 Oct 2024 | New Zealand 10, Australia 22 | Pacific Championships |
| 4 Nov 2023 | New Zealand 30, Australia 0 | Pacific Championships |
| 28 Oct 2023 | Australia 36, New Zealand 18 | Pacific Championships |
| 11 Nov 2022 | Australia 16, New Zealand 14 | World Cup |
| 25 Oct 2019 | Australia 26, New Zealand 4 | Oceania Cup |
| 13 Oct 2018 | New Zealand 26, Australia 24 | Kangaroos Tour |
| 5 May 2017 | Australia 30, New Zealand 12 | Anzac Test Match |
| 20 Nov 2016 | Australia 34, New Zealand 8 | Four Nations |
| 5 Nov 2016 | New Zealand 8, Australia 14 | Four Nations |
| 15 Oct 2016 | Australia 26, New Zealand 6 | Kangaroos Four Nations Tour |
| 6 May 2016 | Australia 16, New Zealand 0 | Anzac Test Match |
Chances are you're about to lose. 18+ only. Matchday Maths gives information, not betting advice, and no model can promise a result. Set a limit and stick to it. For free, confidential support call Gambling Help on 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au. To block yourself from all licensed Australian online and phone wagering, register at betstop.gov.au.
Model run 10 Nov 2026, 3:45 pm Brisbane time.